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"I will be positioned in this office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer stated, joking that if the conversation proceeded smoothly, he might invite the interviewer into his official residence for a follow-up conversation in 2026.

There is never truly break for leaders. Shortly before we sat down, Starmer had been on the phone with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to understand exactly what had transpired in Venezuela, where his key friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once the discussion, which was far more extended than normal, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

But as the year commences, the Prime Minister seems to have had a kind of a refresh. Maybe even just a bit of relaxation with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly seemed to have put him in a more positive mood than at the saggy conclusion of 2025, a awful political year for him.

But are he and his colleagues kidding themselves if they believe his political fate are about to get better?

Internal Doubts

The harsh truth for the leader is that many of his colleagues believe he's ineffective at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and get him out in 2026.

But Starmer was having none of it when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he insisted he'd be "evaluated at the general election", maintaining nobody would remove his electoral mandate from him – even if the most effective strategy of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 might be for Labour to change leader.

"We are in the struggle of our generation and I aim to lead us," he declared.

The May Elections

The problem for the PM is that he will be judged well ahead of then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He sought to contend, perhaps too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

True – in part. But even though he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir stating that there were no circumstances under which he would walk away, even if a his colleagues challenged him for the job, should those elections prove very poor for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He sought to explain his low poll ratings by saying the voters was understandably anxious for things to improve. He tried to persuade the interviewer, and the nation, that 2026 would be distinct.

The economy would strengthen despite rising unemployment, he said, when plans the government implemented during their initial rocky year began to show results.

• He pledged to close asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, but he did not put a new date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it was not a certainty, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's major invasion.
• He stated for the first occasion that Western allies were now considering how to coordinate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to protect a possible peace.

His core argument is that this year the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The prime minister may have spoken with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – less tense, maybe, with more time to talk.

But despite facing pressure from many directions for a more decisive approach, with greater political clarity, more dynamism, more speed and more immediacy, his points were familiar ones.

Given that he is in such significant political peril, is a different approach required a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, gets everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's problems are not only because governing is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have erred, even in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister told me that he was sorry for saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when statements he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Starmer blamed "the process" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is inviting evident political perils as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president takes on a new jeopardy after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be comfortable with such action seems implausible.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but we "just lack the full picture at the moment".

Critics wanted him to condemn it prior to we spoke. And the government is expected to face increased demands to give an clear view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also consistently been growing desire in the Labour ranks to reverse or renegotiate some of the outcomes of Brexit.

The PM rejects he's doing that, but his new specific pledge to integrate further with the EU's single market – the huge economic European trading zone – will probably elicit accusations that he is reneging on his vow never to try to undo the decisions that stemmed from Brexit.

A decision to align with more of the single market will delight some on his side of the party, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to