A Prediction Market User Profited $436,000 from Bets on Maduro's Downfall.
An individual profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader just before it was made public, sparking debate about whether someone profited from non-public details of the US operation.
Sudden Shift in Predictions
Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be no longer in control by the close of the month surged in the time leading up to Donald Trump stated on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended.
One account, which registered on the site recently and placed four wagers, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436,000 from a starting bet of $32.5K.
Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.
Probability Spikes Before Public Statement
Trading information shows that users put the odds of a political change at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the prior Friday.
However the odds had climbed to 11% by shortly before midnight and surged in the first hours of Saturday, suggesting a sharp shift in market sentiment right before the public announcement was made.
"This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a trade based on confidential knowledge," said an industry expert.
A handful of other platform users also profited large payouts from predicting the capture.
Regulatory Scrutiny Emerges
Elected officials are beginning to pay attention.
Proposed legislation put forward on the start of the week would prevent government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet.
Market Background
Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to wager on everything from elections to political events.
The industry faced scrutiny under the previous administration. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the present political climate.
Trading on insider information is against the law in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market industry.
A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."
